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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.