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The most severe projected effects of the global heating for the UK have been detailed by researchers, ranging from a blistering 4C jump in average temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea level. Another scenario envisions a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and energy demand.

Plausible Extremes, Not Predictions

These consequences, a number of which are linked to critical climate thresholds, are viewed as unlikely but possible. The team said that these scenarios filled a gap in risk assessment that had rendered the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are possible," said the professor who directed the research. "The nation has been planning lacking the frameworks to plan for catastrophic outcomes. We've now provided policymakers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they wish to avoid, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Range of Harsh Climate Projections

A second set of dire projections maps the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These indicate that temperatures could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be triple normal levels.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios occurring could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what action will be taken to combat global warming and how the planet's climate will respond. This research was described as similar to defence planning or scenario planning for economic stability.

Critical Outcome Details

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts collapses or if vicious cycles like the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source release its vast reserves of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heat domes and dry spells plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is weakening and losing stability due to global heating. A complete failure beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would be severely challenged and water supplies would be completely altered," said the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica melt abruptly, flooding coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because tiny specks from industrial activity block solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Worst

These dire projections could be utilized in planning the development of major projects, such as expanded cities, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these climate risks could also hasten the transition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The study created the worst-case scenarios using a mix of observed and historical experience, computer simulations and scientific theory. The possibilities exclude potential global problems including the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

This work was initiated as part of a official risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have cautioned that too little consideration was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and assess the dangers for 4C. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "insufficient" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson commented: "Climate change is at the center of our national priorities, both building resilience and transitioning to a low-carbon economy. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the impacts."