Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.