Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.